If this can’t get you ready for the new year, I don’t know what can….TJ
This is very creative…. so I give the director props on this advertisement
Directed by Tony Kelly for American Apparel from Tony Kelly Photography on Vimeo.
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Why I came in this morning at my highest net short position in months…..
Italian bonds blowing out…….. (bulls…. It’s OK..it’s just some rates..they’ll print, Ben will print, 1370 $spx year end, Baaa)
Spanish bonds blowing out, can’t raise all $ they wanted to this week…….. (bulls…. It’s OK..it’s just some rates… they’ll print, Ben will print, 1370 $spx year end Baaa)
We break pennant in $spx lower (no worries, 1370 $spx…Kirby.. mkt CANNOT go down)
Our 10 year US Treasury is where it is and not looking upward (No worries, 1370 $spx year end, Baaaa). Testing 1.96 low… trying to break 1.9, if break then 1.75 = 1100 SPX (the bond mkt) if test 1.60 you get 1020 $spx … crash?)
MF Global gets blown up for missing/hiding $600 million client funds – low ball estimate , try multiplying that number to get the real number (no worries by bulls)
Unemployment is still at 9+ % (no worries by bulls)
So now you are back in the 1220-1120 trading zone (no worries by bulls)
So you closed for two consecutive days below 1225 S&P , not a pump fake it’s 2 straight days!!! (no worries by bulls)
Each day -800 to -2,200 million is coming out of the market DAILY. Liquidity? (no worries by bulls)
Bank of America broke $6, of which I’M HEAVILY SHORT IT STILL …could not get aback above $6, (no worries by bulls)
Goldman Sachs lost 100 and looks like … wait.. is that a $91 print? (no worries by bulls)
Apple shook out the weak shorts when it dipped to 379 then ran to 387 only to get a 374 print on Friday, pre market today 369 (no worries by bulls)
Doug Kass keeps buying and buy dips from 1250 S&P ,we are over 60 handles lower as of this AM… (no worries by bulls)
…………………………….. Hey… the writing was on the wall and still is, I came in hella short Bank of America (BAC), Wynn (WYNN), SPY, Morgan Stanley (MS), Amazon (AMZN) and was very long TZA…. TODAY IS PAYDAY. I will active manage my stops to LOCK IN MY PROFITS! I may only trade this week till mid-day Tuesday so I can enjoy thanksgiving… then look for resumed selling next week (bears should give the bulls a few days this mid-week to gain hope).
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This weekend me and my daughter did some homework and a video on the stock market, low and behold we came across the newest Barron’s article titled “NOT SO FAST, MR. BEAR”. Typically, when a major publication ridicules one side (bull/bear) it means that it’s near a major turning point. I take this to mean the upside in the mkt is retail coming in for 3-5% more appreciation (1325-1370 S&P/SPX) but risk is now down to the lows of 2011 and below (20-30%) , let’s call it 1010-1050 SPX/S&P) as this time the BEARS were mocked in public.
See the video below (thanks Tiera…)
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TJTAKES
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The market gives signals…there are patterns… and there is advice. An individual has to listen to all three (3) anddetermine which one they go along with, there is no pointing fingers to managing your OWN Trade Book. For instance, last week the market gave bears two signals to cover NEAR TERM shorts at SPX (S&P) 1225 last weeks.
See, we broke through 1225 and went up to test ‘break even’ on the year at 1257. The first time the market broke through that was a SIGNAL to cover some stuff (shorts). Then, the market gave bears another SIGNAL to cover some stuff (shorts) when it back tested the breakout at 1225 early last week. I said in Chat in NWATrading.com as well asPUBLICALLY in twitter to take some shorts off, sell some Premium (PREM…sell weekly SPY puts / put spreads) as well as get your trade book more neutral. See below:
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129273236637749248
@Bacchus_Tank just that $spx 1225 held, and when it held.. i took profits on some stuff and nuetralized my book… sold alot of premium too
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129266891423358976
@Bacchus_Tank i told folks to take cushion and buy some longs, actually sell alot of ‘panic’ at 122. great PRemiums at $1.11 to sell this AM
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129250427198914561
RT @Fitzstock2004: NEVER short a dull market —- > I Concur
HERE IS A BIG ONE:, SAID THIS IN CHAT AND ON GOLD THREAD TOO:
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129232409265831936
No reshorting or thoughts of it unless $spy 122.75 is breached with volume
HERE IS A HUGE ONE, I SAID IN CHAT TOO AS WELL AS PUBLIC
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129215800132374528
getting the BOOK more nuetral
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129215800132374528
taking some cushion (profits), not all, taking 1/3 profits of shorts yesterday
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/128832686553968642
if you bought march 2012 puts for $5 an change with me yesterday or the march 2012 – 114s today. you can sell support 122 at $.92 (weeklies)
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Then to take stabs at shorts from the SPY (ETF of S&P) 128 and 129, as well as a big short on Goldman Sachs (aka Goldilocks)..GS… from the 118 level (common) and on breaks 117 via (November puts). See what I said in chat at NWATrading.com as well as PUBLICALLY in twitter:
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129717220786962432
I’ll be shorting Goldilocks soon… i know some feel she is on a elevator non stop..but.. she’s near peak short term for a trade down $GS
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129949388117245952
$gs about to print a 115… that’s 3 handles from my common 118 short and put adding on 117 break each time
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129949206390644736
Also, $GS issue will be a $spy issue … sold a ton of HOPE TODAY… setting that on autopilot now as well, DONE
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129931444154937344
shorted $gs common 118 print
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129932206813614080
i am keeping that $gs 118 short hell or high water for the near term… will sell weekly puts against it if need be
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129925008117071873
wait for $gs to lose 117 then round 2
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129904520183545856
Y’day if you got puts $spy 128 nov 4 weeklies and spreaded them + shorted the break of $spy 129. net net you will be up on the opening print
So what am I doing this morning.. I’ll be looking to take off (1/3) short from GS maybe (I took off 1/3 in the 115s last Friday.
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/129951754568732676
covering 1/3 of $gs short manually, rest on autopilot
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And based on what the market is telling me I’ll take off some shorts or let them ride or get long the market… I’ll listen to signals, I’ll have multiple patterns to look at (I do my homework) and then there is price action. I won’t FALL IN LOVE WITH ANY POSITIONS in this HIT AND RUN market. If market wants to bounce…I’ll ride some longs or establish new ones. I’ll listen to signals, recognize patterns and roll the dice.
UPDATE: THE FUTURES, es_f /SPZ’s have a H&S (head & shoulders pattern) on the 5 min chart …I tweeted this too
http://twitter.com/#!/tjtakes/status/130966506694651904
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TJTakes
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The market wants to gap up this morning. While bears typically can short the common or buy puts, there are other tactics that bears can use when the mkt goes against them. My term that many on twitter have seen is ‘selling hope’. That is selling ATM (at the money) or OTM (out the money) call spreads. Also, I love diagonal spreads as well, I tend to use weekly options paired up with monthly options. Like the QQQ trade yesterday. When QQQ was $56.71 I bought the Nov ATM puts on the QQQ, but I sold the same amount of puts at $55 on the weekly puts. The premium was very high due to the VIX. At the end of the day yesterday the November puts on QQQ were -$120 but the weekly puts sold was +$130 (max is +$200, expires this Friday) … this morning, the weekly puts sold will probably be around MAX profit while the November puts on QQQ will lose nominal (small gap up of .50 in the QQQ …currently the most overbought index ETF). Basically net net will be break even. I have the choice of taking it off for break even or selling NEXT WEEKS weekly puts while the VIX is still in the mid 30′s.
Bears have to hedge on their shorts, the hedge I put on yesterday was shorting the TZA (3x small cap bear) via common, November puts and Oct OpEx put spread. At the open I’ll take a bit of that off as the mkt is at the high-end of the range.
Also, the BAC (bank of america) rebate trade, we sold next week $6 puts in BAC for .17, with the morning gap up those puts may be .08…that’s about a 50% return on margin trade overnight. TAKE IT.
If you have next week SPY put spread for next week but kept the size small that’s ok. You can sell hope in the SPY that can make that back and then some. These are the trades I’d put on at the bell to maximize $ making as a bear in a mkt that wishes to test Bears meddle.
(1) sell this spread in the SPY - CLICK HERE
(2) sell this spread in MS – CLICK HERE
(3) use this line to short the SPY – CLICK HERE
(4) use this retest of SPY to get long SSO – CLICK HERE
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Good luck Trading
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What’s the difference between a bullish basing and a bearish churn? The former occurs above support and works off the overbought condition as a function of time rather than price. The latter happens under resistance and works off the oversold condition in the same manner. Check the chart of the S&P below, and you tell me where we are.
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The market last friday did nothing wrong, technically… we got the selling we were looking for, then the stock market held the bottom channel of a pennant I am looking at (WHICH COULD BREAK IF THE G-7 DON’T DO ANYTHING THIS WEEKEND). See the image below then the comments after it:
So the market will do 1 of 2 things on Monday, either begin to rise to the top of the pennant (you can see the projection) where I would start to leg into short. Or the market will dump to this level in the image below (thanks Mavin for sharing this):
So I gave you two scenarios that are think are quite telling. One is the market stays in a pennant ,the other is if the bottom of the pennant breaks where the market will first get saved (which matches up with my partner Sqwii thesis).
I am working on a few other posts today, trade with our TOP TRADERS each week who are up over 70% (validated) in gains this year in the market at NWATrading.com
-Trey aka TJTakes
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so 1195 looks like the top. compelling chart trey! solid scenarios. very very helpful.
Pretty much … 
I helped a member of our financial trading community NWATrading with a repair thesis of a call spread that he had on Google ($GOOG) during August 2011 Option Expiration week. See the short video (saves my fingers, lol). To see the full video and others goto
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TJTakes
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The Force is strong with this one
by Trey Jarmond
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